NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Final Week.
As we head into the last weekend of the regular NFL campaign, just two postseason berths remain open. Yet, far more is at stake, including the coveted top seeds in both conferences and four division titles.
The schedule makers have produced a perfect finale, with the two remaining play-off positions to be decided in two direct head-to-head contests.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
AFC Standings
- Denver Broncos (13-3)
- New England Patriots (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- L.A. Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-5)
The winner of the Steelers-Ravens game will claim the #4 spot and a home game in the wildcard round. At the same time, the Bills and Los Angeles are locked in as wildcard entrants.
The Texans need a victory and a Jaguars loss to jump from fifth to the third seed. The Broncos will earn the #1 ranking with a triumph, but a loss could pave the way for New England or the Jaguars to snatch it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay (9-6)
The South division is up for grabs by the winner of the Carolina-Tampa Bay game, earning them the fourth seed. However, Carolina could still claim the division even with a defeat, depending on other results.
The Packers are set at the seventh seed. The marquee matchup, however, is the battle for the NFC's top seed between Seattle and San Francisco, with a first-round bye and home playoff games on the line.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The #1 team in each conference earns a valuable bye week and home-field advantage throughout the play-offs.
During the Wild Card round, the remaining six playoff teams face off: the second seed hosts the #7 team, #3 plays #6, and #4 faces #5.
For the Divisional Round, the #1 seeds enter the fray, facing the lowest remaining seed. The conference title games are then played at the highest seed, highlighting the critical value of earning that top spot.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
This fierce rivalry reaches its climax in the last contest of the regular season. The divisional title and a play-off berth on the line, this is a genuine win-or-go-home scenario.
The Steelers have been inconsistent this season, while Baltimore started poorly but are still in contention. Key injuries could be decisive: The Steelers may be without key target DK Metcalf, while the Ravens' quarterback their MVP QB is questionable with a health issue.
Running back Derrick Henry could be the difference-maker for the Ravens in what is set up as a hard-hitting, low-scoring struggle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (01:00, Sunday)
More than just the division title is on the line when the Seahawks travels to the 49ers. The winner secures the conference's #1 spot and the road to the Super Bowl that comes with it.
This matchup features an high-powered 49ers offense against a dominant Seattle defense. Since quarterback Brock Purdy came back, San Francisco have been the NFL's highest scorers. Conversely, Seattle's defense is rated second best in the NFL.
The Seahawks' quarterback their passer must avoid mistakes that have haunted him this season. The team that wins this clash gains a huge edge for the postseason journey.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (21:30 Saturday)
Both clubs comes into this game with strong form. Tampa Bay have dropped seven of eight, while the Panthers have squandered recent opportunities to secure the division.
For Carolina it's straightforward: win and they're in. The Buccaneers, the situation is trickier. Even with a victory, they need another result from the Atlanta-New Orleans game to claim the division crown.
Three-Way Fight for AFC Supremacy
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (21:25, Sunday)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25, Sunday)
Denver hold the cards for the #1 AFC spot. A victory over a L.A. Chargers team expected to sit key players seals it.
If the Broncos lose, the opportunity arises for the New England Patriots. A Patriots win coupled with a Broncos loss would give the top seed to Bill Belichick's team.
Jacksonville are the long shot. They need a win and losses by both Denver and New England to pull off an unlikely rise to the top. More pressingly, a Jacksonville defeat could see them passed by the Houston Texans in the AFC South.
NFL Week 18: Complete Schedule
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
