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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.