Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.